There’s a line to describe Trump’s foreign policy jaunts that’s particularly popular on social media: TACO which stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. And that might be true abroad whether it’s against Iran or China but back home, he remains the ultimate boss. Iran can resist him. Petrol prices can embarrass him. Pollsters can wound him. But Republican dissenters still discover that crossing Trump is less a political disagreement and more a career-ending medical condition.
The Massie warning
The evidence is now piling up. The clearest example is Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican who lost his primary to Ed Gallrein, a Trump-backed former Navy SEAL and farmer. In a report, Axios called it a “huge win” for Trump’s campaign to oust Massie, and said the defeat sent “another warning to Republicans about the dangers of crossing Trump.” The race drew more than $32 million in ad spending, making it the most expensive House primary in history, according to AdImpact.Massie was not a moderate squish, a secret Democrat or a Republican who had accidentally wandered in from a Lincoln Project wine tasting. He was one of the most conservative members of Congress. His crime was worse, not pledging fealty to Trump. Massie said the White House wanted “100% compliance,” even though he voted with Trump “90% of the time.” In Trump’s Republican Party, 90% loyalty is not loyalty. It is treason with better attendance.
Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., reacts as he speaks during an election night watch party after losing the Republican party’s nomination at the Marriott Cincinnati Airport, Tuesday, May 19, 2026, in Hebron, Ky. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Trump had spent months turning Massie into a cautionary tale. He called him a “moron,” a “nut job” and a “major Sleazebag.” In an Oval Office video posted on Truth Social, Trump said: “We’re in a fight against the worst congressman in the history of our country.” Gallrein, by contrast, offered the only sentence now required on the Republican exam paper: “There has never been a more important time to stand behind our president.”Massie was not alone. Trump had also helped take out Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, another major target, after Cassidy failed to finish in the top two in the state’s GOP primary. Cassidy’s original sin was voting to convict Trump after January 6. Trump also exacted retribution on Indiana Republican state legislators who blocked his push to redraw the state’s congressional map. This is no longer just endorsement politics. It is party discipline by public execution.
The war that voters don’t understand
That is why the Iran story matters. On the surface, Trump looks weak. Reuters/Ipsos found his approval rating had fallen to 35%, close to the lowest point of his second term. His approval among Republicans had dropped to 79%, down from 91% at the start of the term. The decline was linked to the Iran war, surging petrol prices and cost-of-living anger.
President Donald Trump with first lady Melania Trump as they give remarks to guests on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington for the Congressional Picnic, Tuesday, May 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)
The Iran numbers are even worse. Only 62% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict, while just one in four Americans overall said US military action in Iran had been worth it. For a president who built his mythology around winning, that is a brutal verdict. It means the country did not rally around the flag. It looked at the flag, looked at the petrol pump, and asked what exactly the plan was.A separate poll found that two out of three Americans believed Trump had not clearly explained why the US went to war with Iran. The same poll found that 66% said he had not clearly explained the goals of US military involvement, while 63% said recent petrol price increases had hurt their household finances. Three-quarters of Americans, including half of Republicans, said the administration bore at least a fair amount of responsibility for the petrol price surge.
The TACO doctrine
This is where the TACO frame becomes politically useful. The phrase began as a Wall Street joke about Trump’s tariff threats. Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong popularised the idea of “Trump Always Chickens Out” to describe the pattern of Trump issuing maximalist threats, watching markets panic, then softening or delaying the move. Trump, when asked about it, called it a “nasty question” and insisted it was negotiation.Iran has given that joke a foreign policy afterlife. The war has helped drive petrol prices higher, disrupted a vital chunk of global oil trade and left Iran refusing to behave like a defeated state. Trump has claimed success, but the strategic picture remains messy: a fragile ceasefire, continuing pressure in the Gulf, rising prices at home and a public that does not understand the objective.
Congress has noticed. The Senate advanced a war-powers resolution that would end the Iran war unless Trump obtained congressional authorisation. The vote was 50-47, with four Republicans joining most Democrats. It was a rare rebuke of Trump, 80 days after US and Israeli forces began striking Iran. Even more tellingly, Bill Cassidy, fresh from being punished by Trump in his primary, supported the measure.So, yes, Trump may be losing against Iran. But he is still winning where it matters most for American power: inside the Republican Party.
Weak president, terrifying party boss
The national electorate is souring on him. The Republican base is still largely his. His war is unpopular. His endorsement is still lethal. His cost-of-living numbers are dire. His primary machine still works. That is the dual reality of Trump’s second term. He can be weak as president and terrifying as party boss at the same time.The counter-evidence matters because it makes the argument stronger. Democrats have been overperforming in special elections. Brookings found that in every congressional special election held so far in the 2025-26 cycle, Republicans lost ground compared with their 2024 results, even in districts they won. It also noted that 12 state legislative seats had flipped from Republican to Democratic control, while none had flipped the other way.That means Trump is not “winning everywhere” in America. He is not sweeping the national mood. He is not dominating independents. Independent registered voters have favoured Democrats by double digits in congressional preference polling, while his approval on the economy and the Iran conflict has remained deeply weak.
But American politics is not a single battlefield. It is a map of nested contests. Trump can be losing the national argument while winning the Republican selection process. He can be unpopular with independents while still terrifying GOP incumbents. He can be trapped by Iran abroad while remaking the Republican Party at home into something closer to a loyalty cult than a conservative coalition.
The obedience machine
That is why Massie’s defeat matters more than one Kentucky primary. It shows that Trump’s political power has changed shape. In 2016, he won by seducing the Republican base. In 2026, he wins by disciplining the Republican class. The voters still matter, but the message to politicians is simpler: your record, ideology and seniority are negotiable. Your loyalty is not.This is the Trumpian contradiction in its purest form. He promised to keep America out of forever wars, then stumbled into an Iran conflict that many Americans think he has not explained. He promised to lower prices, then presided over a petrol shock. He promised strength abroad, then produced a war that has left Tehran defiant, Congress restless and voters unconvinced. Yet within the GOP, his strength remains brutally intact.In the Gulf, Trump’s threats meet missiles, oil markets and a state that does not need to win CNN to survive. In Kentucky, Louisiana and Indiana, his threats meet Republican politicians who very much need to survive their next primary. That is the difference. Iran can absorb Trump’s rage. Republican dissenters cannot.Trump may be losing against Iran or China, but he is still winning bigly in American politics because American politics, at least on the Republican side, is no longer about whether Trump is right. It is about whether anyone can afford to tell him he is wrong.
